Alright, another bright day to blot out the sun and cozy up to a dark dreary website with vintage veneer. Of course, if you have wood, you’re probably rich, but, let’s for the sake of everything keep assuming you’re poor. It’s better for the both of us, to be honest.
Anyways, lumber prices are high as fuck, and everyone’s got a theory. I’m here to say that it’s probably a mix of all these theories. I’m going to skim over the normie-theories and then lay down my Morning Wood on you like it’s Morning News because you’ll be Mourning Losses in not realizing how this whole lumber thing could definitely be a scam.
Well, so let’s quickly skim the Normie theories on why lumber prices are high as fuck;
Theories below are purely speculatory and are probably good sounding, sounding just good enough to might be true.
Covid happened, closed down a bunch of Sawmills, resulting in less wood production, meaning less supply of wood, resulting in higher prices.
Money Printer go BRRRR from Daddy J Pow’s actions Fresh off the Printing press, means more money, means assets and commodities are worth more. Meaning Lumber go BRRRR.
There’s a commodities super cycle, and that’s doing things to make Lumber prices go up along with other things like Steel or Uranium or whateverthefuck.
There were huge fires in the west coast that made California, Oregon, and Washington look like DUNE. Whether or not that did anything to lumber markets, who cares. Point is, things burned, some towns burned, and that means you’ll need to rebuild houses, telephone poles, and other Wood-shit-infrastructure.
Trump’s 2017 TCJA really fucked over rich people by limiting SALT deductions, resulting in people moving away from shitty places like California and New York Shitty. These people have money, so they want new construction, and for some reason we still heavily rely on lumber for new homes.
Covid hit, and everyone became a dictator enacting martial law. A bunch of rich people were like ‘fuck that’ and moved out of dodge, with buying up homes and more new construction. I mean, just look at all the New Yorkers that went to Florida, it’s practically New New Yorkidia or sum shit.
Anyways, Covid also fucked up commercial real estate, and allowed people to work from home. Meaning they can work from not-the-fuck-down-town, meaning people got ballsy and bought homes or rentals and wanted more new construction.
Over the years, Airbnb is a thing, and as people took out 30 mortgages at once to gamble it all on renting out their homes, covid hit. Fucked them up a bit, but these land-mogul-air-bnb people still added something to the new construction.
There’s an impending shit show from the Quantitative Easing resulting too much excess liquidity in the markets resulting in banks being ‘overfull’ and possibly on the brink of ‘bank-ruptcy’ by having the bank explode with too much cash from not having enough reserves to offset the collateral of the liabilities earned from all those stimmy checks that J Pow Printed and now the Banks are playing hot potato with shitty cash to try and earn collaterals while also issuing loans in hopes of having enough collaterals. Thus Banks have fed a cycle of margin and overleveraged investing and capital acquisition resulting in All time High Margin balances and Reveres Repo Rates in hopes to not explode. While Fed Chair increased basis points to 0.05% to make banks not explode. While the fourth branch of Government, Black Rock, Buys up all the houses as assets to offset the impending shit show of limited collateral without assets. Thus, they’re buying up entire Neighbor-fucking-hoods, and Housing prices go up. Meaning Lumber goes up.
As Houses are being built and bought, Housing prices go up, the demand for homes goes up, which means the demand for lumber goes up, and with low (probably artificial) supply and monetary inflation, this is a recipe for high as fuck lumber prices.
As you can tell, the markets are an intertangled mess of a lot of shit and fuck stacked together. So There’s not really a one theory is best. With that being said, let’s talk about the crack pot theory;
Now put your tin foil hat on, and Let’s deep dive in to conspiracy-land!
Just look at Lumber Prices, specifically the financial derivatives. What I mean is, Lumber Futures to the MOOON!
Now, if you know anything about anything, it’s that if you can make more money than inflation, then you’re golden. So Possibly, someone is artificially inflating the Lumber market through artificial Shortages and this results in High Lumber prices.
Just buy some wood, store it, don’t sell it, and boom, you got high demand for lumber prices.
Here is a list of random things from the internet that suggest artificial Commodities Market Manipulation;
Here’s the Uneducated Economist, a Working Class American, talking about Lumber;
It’s almost like there is some bigger force causing speculation attacks resulting in a leak-over from interconnected markets relating to the inflationary affects of commercial papers (on lumber and other commodities) from the Capital Markets. All of this to possibly sustain a reserve assets on several large bank’s balance sheets. But of course, why would that matter. Idk, maybe it’s because Reverse Repo Rates are fucking high as fuck or something. Ignore that- Hey, look a
squirrel YouTube video;
Here’s a link to search results for “lumber shortage” on YouTube if you want more YuuTubers talkin’
Guess Who can save us from
It’s always been our neighbor, Fucking Canada eh.
Turns out, Canada is mostly indigenous stolen land, Like America, which means it has trees that we can harvest. Which is fucking great!
Great thing is, Canada is right next door, so it should be real easy to get some of that. . .
Oh wait, they are also facing some problems?
wait. . . They’re not saving us? Why not?
Well maybe it’s because;
There’s a Trade War on Soft Lumber;
We tax the fucking shit out of them using tariffs.
So they(Canada) don’t want to do trade with us, and guess what, they still don’t want to sell to us.
Mainly because the US government want’s their vig.
And also because the US government is probably working in cahoots with the Lumber Oligarchy to artificially limit lumber supply to counter foreign economic intervention or at least make a quick buck from pilfering from the citizens at large.
I don’t fucking know man, I don’t have the CIA or FBI Dossiers to know what the fucks up with Lumber. But look at this picture;
I highlighted a thing, and it’s from a Wall Street Journal article. So fake news, but still. Lumber Mills take time to build, but random internet sources say that this inflationary price is going to last somewhere between 5 to 30 years with an average around 11 years. So those mills are probably more profitable building and churning out wood than not. But I’m not their advisor and I don’t do their underwriting so Fuck me.
It seems that these high lumber prices are very very beneficial to lumber supply chain producers. So, I suspect foul play and artificial jacking up the prices. Because, I mean, they’re acting mighty sus for betting on higher prices to correct higher prices.
But what I can tell you, is the public information that is available;
Meet Honorable Gina Raimondo:
Before I go into this, I want you, the reader, to understand that I hold no animosity or contempt to run any sort of smear campaign or any emotions. I’ve transcended the matrix of life and only hold feelings for money. Precious, sweet, cold, hard cash. With that being said, the following is pure speculation and should not be considered factual even if linked to actual facts from federal sources. Because I’m not in the business of ruining reputations, just reporting things and shit. No hate, just non-fax.
She was the Governor for Rhode Island, before being appointed United States Secretary of Commerce under Biden’s New Gang Gang;
And Honorable Gina Raimondo, will continue to “fully enforce U.S. Trade laws on Canada”;
Here’s International Trade Administrations definition of Antidumping and Countervailing Duties (AD/CVD);
Which means prices would go down. Sooo. . .
As it turns out, she may even raise tariffs; lmao, nice;
To be fair, the tariff was 20% until 2017, where it was slashed down to 9%, so now we’re trying to up it back to ~20%.
However, because the price of Lumber went up. . . We may want to re-evaluate. . .
Like that makes fucking sense, yea, let’s prevent Canada from lowering the already egregiously high lumber prices making it better for a good chunk of Americans.
It’s almost like they want Lumber prices to be high as fuck still.
Like it’s artificial. . .
Hey, if we look at this random letter from March 29, 2021, we can see that someone wants to negotiate with Canada;
TLDR; PLEASE WORK WITH CANADA TO TEMP LIFT TARRIFF and stabilize lumber prices with a new SLA.
Atleast, that’s how it sounds. Really, it’s probably a tactical deal in the backroom to talk about the current reality of the lumber markets and to talk about how something fucky is going on or something. And probably not have any deal come to fruition, because high prices means more money. But at the cost of many Americans.
It’s not like these high prices are transitory bubbles caused by speculation. . . right? lmao.
And in June 14th, they had da meeting, and it just sounds like fluff;
Idk what was actually said, and to be honest, I don’t really care. I’ve given up on this article. Even my motivation is not a safe bet.
So words were spoken, and everyone felt good about it or something. So life goes on.
Is there a Lumber Cartel?
Well, there definitely are blood avocados, healthcare, insurance, and even Light bulbs (for fucks sake) Cartels.
So why not?
I didn’t do any research, but there’s less than 100 mill in America. Probably.
So based on that non-number, My conclusion on there being a Lumber Cartel is;
Here’s a link so you can do your own reading.
Here’s some search results to supplement your reading.
I was a bit late in rolling out this article because I’m lazy as fuck, but lumber (derivatives) seems to be going down.
No thanks to the Department of Commerce;
But also thanks the Department of Commerce (because their inaction allowed for whatever transitory period to subside. Assuming this recent price hike was a fluke based only on the speculatory price of derivatives. And not an actual lumber shortage.)
Would be really awkward if this is the liquidation of many commercial papers and futures in preparation for a liquidity crunch and market crash this upcoming week. Would be. Awk-ward. Ahem, but I’m just a degenerate and this is all tinfoil stuff.
Definitely don’t look into the allegation of Capital Markets needing Collateral backed by speculatory price hikes on Commercial Papers on All commodities. That theory absolutely has no basis in reality at all and isn’t the best explanation for this commodities super cycle and the correlation between Reverse Repo Rates and the Fed bois offering 5 basis points. Definitely don’t read in-between the lines to understand the real reason for the inflation. Definitely don’t.
(Definitely don’t read the italics.)
Well, one and/or a combination, or all of the above theories is right about Lumber Prices.
It’s definitely a high chance. Probably.
And those theories aren’t a safe bet.
*Not Valid Financial, Legal, Life, or Any Advice